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October 6, 2008

What is value?

Filed under: business, web 2.0 — Tags: — taewoo @ 12:05 pm

How do you define value for websites?

Ok, let’s take the the wikipedia explanation of value:

The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline. First, economists tried to estimate the value of a good to an individual alone, and extend that definition to goods which can be exchanged. From this analysis came the concepts value in use and value in exchange.

Value in use describes what I have to give up to obtain more of a good. I know I will have to reduce my leisure, consumption, savings or investment to obtain more of something. That is the basic trade-off in value.

Value in exchange describes what I have to trade to obtain more of a good, and describes the opportunities available in the market.

So how would one define what is a “valuable” website? I think we can all agree that search engines (i.e. help you find stuff) and mail service providers (i.e. help you communicate) are valuable, but what about seemingly-trivial sites like MySpace/FaceBook/Hi5/Bebo/etc etc? Sure people can agree that social networks are communication platforms, but if communication is what people really wanted, why not stick to just email?

Then again, are these sites valuable because of what they provide or because people use them that these sites are valuable? It’s a chicken or the egg question, but apparently, they are useful in the marketplace otherwise no one would be using them.

How can I define value?

I personally think companies like Skype, WalMart, Microsoft, Lucky’s Supermarket, Verizon, etc. all provide extremely valuable service/products. So I guess my definition of value is… you cannot live comfortably without them or that your life is better because of what they provide.

*shrug*

Monday morning randomness.

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October 4, 2008

Bay area housing inventory snapshot - September 2008

Filed under: deals — Tags: , — taewoo @ 4:23 pm
Housing Inventory Snapshot September 30, 08
  Average List Price Median List Price Average Days On Market
Santa Clara County, CA
Single Family under $1M $572,450 $549,888 86
Single Family over $1M $2,113,967 $1,549,950 76
Condo/Townhome under $600K $346,303 $330,000 84
Condo/Townhome over $600K $806,929 $728,000 63
San Mateo County, CA
Single Family under $1M $638,652 $629,999 80
Single Family over $1M $2,310,539 $1,499,000 70
Condo/Townhome under $600K $421,809 $425,000 82
Condo/Townhome over $600K $865,258 $749,950 70
Santa Cruz County, CA
Single Family under $1M $590,735 $579,900 98
Single Family over $1M $1,833,901 $1,485,000 106
Condo/Townhome under $600K $359,986 $351,000 94
Condo/Townhome over $600K $907,236 $799,000 134
Monterey County, CA
Single Family under $1M $387,638 $304,800 97
Single Family over $1M $2,734,887 $1,895,000 119
Condo/Townhome under $600K $277,085 $244,900 114
Condo/Townhome over $600K $878,543 $750,000 145
San Benito County, CA
Single Family under $1M $417,190 $335,000 104
Single Family over $1M $2,560,712 $1,350,000 136
Condo/Townhome under $300K $148,560 $144,000 85
Condo/Townhome over $300K N/A N/A N/A
Alameda County, CA
Single Family under $1M $442,008 $399,000 81
Single Family over $1M $1,753,805 $1,445,000 84
Condo/Townhome under $600K $330,632 $319,900 81
Condo/Townhome over $600K $744,491 $670,000 94
Contra Costa County, CA
Single Family under $1M $354,444 $290,000 87
Single Family over $1M $1,889,172 $1,549,000 103
Condo/Townhome under $600K $260,368 $220,000 91
Condo/Townhome over $600K $722,157 $685,000 77

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September 30, 2008

What not to do if you’re a real estate agent

Filed under: real estate — Tags: — taewoo @ 11:03 am

I was on a property tour with this real estate agent..

1) She came late 30 minutes. we were supposed to meet at 9 AM.

2) I call her at 9:10 AM asking where she is. She says she’ll be there in a minute. She calls me at around 9:25 AM asking me where she is.

3) When I see her I put my hand out to shake her hand/greet her. She ignores it. AT this point, she looks like she’s drunk or something. SHe has a delayed reaction… she looks at my hand then looks away… then looks down again, THEN shakes my hand. Her eyes, at this point, glaze over everything.

4) She drives out of the parking a lot and into another parking lot for NO reason whatsoever. I thought she was going to GPS the first property but no. She just pulls in and asks me what my intentions are with the 1st property I buy. By the way, when she says this, she’s on the parking lot “row” that’s facing the oncoming traffic.

5) She’s driving at 70 MPH on the freeway tailgating every car she sees. Literally, i can’t see the rear wheel of the car in front b/c she’s that close.

6) At times, her eyes are completely shut. She even hits on of those wake-up-sleeping-drivers-by-rattling-the-car tiny marks on the road at least 4 times.

7) We almost hit a car… TWICE

9) She misses our exits… TWICE.

I’m freakin’ out in the car. The whole time, she asked me what my intentions were with the first property every 2 minutes or so. I ask her if she’s on something and if so, it’s ok just pull over and let me drive. She says no of course (fearing loss of her real estate license I bet) but CLEARLY she is on something - she is WAAAAAY too incoherent and the last two trips with her were NOT like this.

At this point, i was fearing for my life. Shoot, if she wants to kill herself, fine with me as long as I’m not in her car. I ended the trip. I take control of the car and go back to the office. So I started touring ANtioch w/o her in my car.

If you’re a real estate agent, don’t smoke crack before meeting your client. If you have to, at least warn the client so he/she can drive separte.

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September 29, 2008

Is God fair? Who knows.

Filed under: commentary, spiritual — Tags: — taewoo @ 3:07 pm

When shit hits the fan (i.e. current bank failures, real estate bubble bursting exploding, people losing jobs, terminal diseases, wars, natural disasters…  make your choice), people seem to have this spiritual argument: is God fair? In fact last night, I went to mass and this was exactly the topic.

This is obviously a dumb question: of course, God is fair. If you believe that God created everything, then why not random chance? Randomness is His creation too, right?

Randomness is great because it really does not care who you are.. how, what, when, where you are in fact. THis isn’t probably a good example, but Joker from the movie Batman says

Introduce a little anarchy, you upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I am an agent of chaos. And you know the thing about chaos, Harvey? It’s fair.

It’s not to say that chaos is same as random chance but the principal is the same. We are all little boats on this shaky ocean of life. We all get shit to a certain degree: some of us have more skills, some have more money, some are better looking, some are well spoken…. but to a certain extent, some of us have more fear, some have more jitters, some have more anger, some have more addictive personalities, etc.

No one is perfect and everyone is subject to the same human faults, expressed in different characteristics. And because we are all boats on this turbulet life ocean, we can choose to set our sail and exert our force + focus in the direction that we want to go. Some will suceed, most will fail (why? that’s another ph.D thesis i can get into) but the truth and matter is, we all start out from the same ocean… the same random chance of life or cards we were dealt.

People ask… “well, what about a baby who’s born into this world and die at very young age. Do you think that’s fair even if he had no chance of ’setting his sail’?” Of course not… but what if you had time machine, go to future in time, and find out that he turns out to be a serial killer who kills babies for fun? Then was it fair? We can go into zillion different if’s… but we can always think of these other if’s that support or destroy our argument too.

No one can predict or change the future… but each and everyone does have the capacity to change his/her reaction toward’s a life’s event that would ultimately dictact whether or not God was fair.

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Bailout IS needed

Filed under: business — Tags: — taewoo @ 2:52 pm

People keep saying that the bailout is not good b/c

  1. we’re meddling with free market
  2. the bailout is really bailing out greedy wall street executives who took big chances with other people’s money… (i.e. no free lunch if you mess up)

I agree with both of them. Heck, I agree with all of the arguments against the $700 billion bailout. But this time, we have to look at the greater picture.

The credit market ONLY works if there’s credit (i.e. people and companies can borrow to buy whatever they need). With no credit, businesses and producers of society cannot have the debt capital to expand their business or acquire assets. The fundamental problem with the real estate bubble is that people borrow to buy liabilities. This credit crunch doesn’t care WHY you are borrowing, just the fact that you ARE borrowing.

If the businesses and investors cannot borrow, they cannot do business. No business, no jobs, This bailout, yes, is equivalent to bailing out someone who drank too much and is about to have a heart attack from the years of damage he has done to his body. People want him to get better, but guess what, he has to LIVE first before any long term repair can be put in place.

Under all other circumstances, I am against ALL forms of gov’t messing with the natural market forces. But clearly, the current situation is beyond any regular player in the natural market can do. The only player left, unfortunately, is Uncle Sam.

It’s very simple folks: either we pay more taxes or we go into a very long depression. Your choice.

PS: By the way, if you have 401k, pension plan, life insurance, or any long term investments, it’s in your best interest to support this… why? Read this.

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September 26, 2008

WAMU like a washed up Shamu

Filed under: business — Tags: , — taewoo @ 11:55 am

When WAMU stock first tanked from 60 bucks to 3 bucks, that’s when I started to get a notice… thinking “ah crap, bank failure, here we come” I’m not afraid of banks failing… but what I afraid of is the damn herding effect. It’s not the actual event, but the response from the masses.

If I watch a movie and someone screams out fire, I’m not really afraid of the fire. I’m afraid of the idiots screaming and running, trampling all over me and whoever I’m with. The only reason I would run is to make sure I don’t get run over.

When the stock tanked to $3, I wasn’t worried about getting my money out more so I was worried about what the masses would do. In my branch, i was the second person that month to ask for entire balance of account. Sure, though it’d be measly tiny (for now), but shoot, it was MY money. The dude asked me why I’m taking it out. I should’ve replied “sex change operation” so they don’t give me a whole slew of sales pitches on why I should stay. Never knew taking money out of a failing bank could be so rough.

I still had 19 bucks in my account (thanks to stupid PayPal and their delayed everything, but that’s another post) so I figured, shoot, it’s not life savings but I want to eat lunch today. So I went. The branch I go to is really tiny (maybe 500 sq. ft or so) and it was JAM packed. I waited at least 15 minutes, when usually, the wait is about 1-3 minutes. And it wasn’t over. When I was ahead of the line, the line behind me got LONGER. People were nervously filling out withdrawal forms or what not. Then the dreaded words from the teller

Sorry. There’s a stop on withdrawals.

I am not sure if he meant a stop on that particular person’s account … or stop on 100% (or some significant) withdrawals.. but those words made people stop what they were doing and look at that teller.

I’m guessing it’s probably nothing since I did get my 18 bucks (I wanted to leave $1 so I can keep my free WAMU account open) but damn, the line got longer and longer.

I don’t know what’s wiser: being calm + patient or predicting trends and acting on it when the eye of the storm is scaring the herd. Maybe I’ll spend $18 bucks printing + mailing flyers to other WAMU customers to leave while they can. *muahahha* (evil grin)

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AIG bailout is the least worst case scenario

Filed under: commentary — Tags: , — taewoo @ 12:51 am

I am not sure if this is already floating on internet, but i got an email, so here it is:

Subject: The Birk Economic Recovery Plan

Hi Pals,

I’m against the $85,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.

Instead, I’m in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child.. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.

My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend..

Of course, it would NOT be tax free.

So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.

Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.

That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.

A husband and wife has $595,000.00.

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.

Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads

Put away money for college - it’ll be there

Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.

Buy a new car - create jobs

Invest in the market - capital drives growth

Pay for your parent’s medical insurance - health care improves

Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( “vote buy” ) economic incentive that is being proposed
by one of our candidates for President.

If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!

As for AIG - liquidate it.

Sell off its parts.

Let American General go back to being American General.

Sell off the real estate.

Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can “never work.”

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!

How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion

We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .

And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Ahhh…I feel so much better getting that off my chest.

Kindest personal regards,

Birk

T. J. Birkenmeier, A Creative Guy & Citizen of the Republic

PS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it’s either good for a laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use $85 Billion!!

 

I would classify myself as libertarian: if it doesn’t affect me, then I don’t spend my energy thinking about it. When it comes to economics, I would say i’m way more so.

The thing that bothers me about the AIG bailout is this: would i rather live through the next great depression or live in pain for the next 10 years? I do not know. Of course, nothing is certain. My argument presumes that the AIG is the backbone of the US, and hence, world economy. Is it? Maybe, maybe not. But those damn wall street people think it is.

It’s an interesting dilemma, even from the point of view of the voters. Would i rather have a quick death or a slow, painful torturing with a very faint hope of survival? It’s an interesting dilemma. I guess this is why people who are in veggie state (i.e. coma) and their families have such hard time deciding whether or not to pull the plug.

If I were Bernanke, I would probably lean towards bailout even though I’m a libertarian. Why? Cuz, the problem is beyond any human control now. Sure you may have the strongest boat with a shitload of crew rowing your boat, but the boat is heading towards the cliff of Niagara falls. What shall I do? Row harder or just give up? The latter seems to me, more “humane”, because at least the crew will have time to accept God or whatever they believe in… make amends with their ex-wives or what not. The first, however, does seem more heroic b/c you gave your best. Can you imagine (if he were real…) Rocky Balboa giving up at the 11th round in the fight against the Russian? Man, that would suck. There would be no movie about Rocky if he did that.

That’s how I view Bernanke/FOMC/US trying to throw the last punch against this economic meltdown crisis. It’s a bad thing, sure. It’s not a bad thing, sure. But at least, they’re trying.

I don’t know if I’ll ever become a politician b/c

  1. I’m too blunt - I would tell people to f*ck off if they piss me off, especially when I’m running for office
  2. My standards are too high - I would expect all my underlings to get up @ 5:00 AM and do a 5 mile run every morning while chanting brain washing slogans about life, health, happines, etc. Gov’t employees tend to be exact opposite of what I’m striving to be.
  3. I’m too positive - I think being pessimistic is a requirement to have a job with Uncle Sam
  4. I hate inefficienty - I can’t even stand fax. Email people… EMAIL.

But if I were a politician, this would be a very very interesting problem to encounter.

Good thing I have 3 dogs. They present more problems than the national debt crisis anyway.

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September 24, 2008

East bay residential real estate foreclosure sales

Filed under: real estate — Tags: , , — taewoo @ 1:30 pm

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September 23, 2008

How to prevent real estate bubbles and clear the national debt

Filed under: business, commentary — Tags: , — taewoo @ 12:50 pm

Mirrored from RedMol.com

This is going to sound ridiculously simplistic but I think it can work.

1. Real Estate Bubble

There’s a very simple reason why real estate bubbles even form in the first place: speculation. If you’re a real estate investor, it sorta makese sense because at least your in the industry. In the previous bubble, people were buying homes as if they were going to make a profit on it while living in it. I don’t know about you, but when I buy my OWN home, my intent is to LIVE in it, not to speculate on it.

By the way, your home is NOT an investment. We can get into very philosophical definition of what an investment is, but that would take days. Look at wikipedia’s definition of what an investment is: 

Investment is the choice by the individual to risk his savings with the hope of gain. Rather than store the good produced, or its money equivalent, the investor chooses to use that good either to create a durable consumer or producer good, or to lend the original saved good to another in exchange for either interest or a share of the profits.

What’s the PRIMARY reason people buy homes? So they don’t have to sleep in cardboard boxes and wake up to someone peeing on your face! It’s a roof over your head, not something you “invest in”. It’s a freakin’ liability, not an asset. Well, that’s not true, it is an asset, just not yours. It’s the banks.

Yes, there were a lot of “investors” and flippers who were speculating and helping to push the bubble further along, but they represent such a small percentage of the people. There’s no way this bubble grew to how big it was w/o the intervention of primary home owners.

So I say we do this : if your primary home is sold within 5 years of purchase, unless you move up into another property, your capital gains is taxed at 90%. Yes this raises a whole slew of “what if’s”…. I say, bring it on. Tell me what these are in the comments.

2. National debt

People think US borrowing is a totally bad thing. Well, I think this can be good.
Other countries are willing to lend money to Uncle Sam @ 5-6%. Instead of blowing this on stupid wasteful things like military expansion, more social security benefits, pensions, etc… why not take this money and buy performing paper notes that produce 10-20% return? i.e… Do what the BANKS do. Yes, this is the federal reserve bank, but they don’t do anything with profit motive in mind. They just care about regulating banks that borrow from them.

Let this new “federal bank” buy PERFORMING credit card loans, auto loans, business loans, etc. Get a yield spread of 8-15%. Heck even give these people a break and cut 2-3 points for and still get a spread of 3-12%.

Yes yes, this bring up another slew of “but” and “if”. Hey, nothing is perfect and the financial system already sucks. Why not suck less.

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September 19, 2008

Damn Bill, why did you change the ad?

Filed under: random — Tags: — taewoo @ 11:22 am

I liked the old ads.. *sigh*

 

I’m a PC too.

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